Fertility Transition
The Fertility Transition from natural (high) fertility to fertility limitation (low) can be explained by a combination of rational decisions made by couples, and sociocultural influences related to diffusion of ideas. The Supply & Demand Framework introduced by Richard Easterlin argues that the fertility level in society is determined by choices made by individual couples as a balance between the ‘supply’ of children (how many they can have) and the ‘demand’ (the ideal number). This framework is based on economic factors such as the cost of rearing children and the economic situation the couple might find themselves in; this is highlighted in this Guardian article from 2015 which describes ‘Millenials’ being priced out of parenthood due to the rising cost of accommodation and childcare.
The sociocultural influences to aid fertility transition include the Diffusion-Innovation Concept which links changes in fertility behaviour to diffusion of ideas across space such as the influences of those in an intimate social circle or by ‘innovators’ or ‘influencers’ in society. Diffusion requires that people have some control over their life which is the essence of the supply/demand model, so they can be seen to be complementary (Weeks, 2002, pp211-216).
Fertility decline was cited by Ansley Coale in 1973 as having three preconditions: 1) an acceptance of choice as a valid element in marital fertility, therefore the status of women is important to make that choice; 2) perceptions of advantages from reduced fertility, which may be economic and 3) knowledge and mastery of effective means of fertility control.
On a personal note, a friend advised me not to have any more than two children as it was very difficult to get hotel rooms for five when going on holidays!
High Fertility and the African Transition
High fertility is prevalent in much of Africa and has not decreased in line with the fertility transition as geographers have expected. While fertility rates in the developing world have decreased in many instances, some have stalled, fuelling population growth. In Sub-Saharan Africa little progress has been made towards fertility transition; there are several reasons for this. High fertility is linked to high infant mortality with the rate in Sierra Leone for example at 84 in 2018 (World Population Data Sheet), compared to Ireland’s rate of 2.8. Some reasons for this are the ‘replacement effect’ as couples try to compensate for the lost child and the ‘hoarding effect’ as couples have more children than is optimal to protect against future mortalities. Although contraceptives are used in some countries, uptake is low, about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); they are used more to space children rather than reduce fertility, in many cases to increase the chances of survival of existing children. According to Newbold (2014, pp94), life expectancy at birth generally must be greater than 50 years for fertility to decline; in SSA it is 59 for men and 62 for women, and as low as 51 and 52 respectively in Sierra Leone. Life expectancy has been impacted greatly by the HIV/AIDS crisis in SSA. Lastly and probably most importantly, lack of quality education and gender equality which are number 4 and 5 on the UN's Sustainable Development Goals have greatly hampered the transition to low fertility.
With many countries’ rapidly growing populations and economic crises, their education and health systems have suffered. Women remain marginalised with low literacy and poor reproductive health. Many see having children as their only source of power, especially if male, being a source of labour and security for the family in the future. Traditional, cultural influences demanding large families persist also, particularly in rural areas.
Child Marriage
One of the shocking facts I learned from these lectures was the high incidence of child marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Niger 75% of girls under 18 are married, 28% by the age of 15. Across other countries in SSA, the rate is 50-60%. The reasons are gender inequality, low education, poverty, traditions and insecurity. As these women become mothers, their early start to child-bearing further fuels the high fertility rate within their country. The video below from Unicef highlights how an end to this practice can help improve women's lives.
The situation is not just confined to Africa however, Unicef data from its website https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-protection/child-marriage/ states that 50% of Roma women aged 20 - 24 in Serbia in 2010 married before 18 years of age. In the general population only 5% of the same group were married. The groom's family paid a 'bride price' for a marriageble girl which was determined by virginity, looks, reputation of the bride's family and their level of acquaintance to the groom's.
Education v Fertility
The correlation between the education of women and reduction in fertility levels is well documented. Roser in his article on the Our World in Data website states that the level of education in a society – of women in particular – is one of the most important predictors for the number of children families have. His graph within that article of "Women's Educational Attainment vs fertility, 1950 - 2010" is certainly an eye-opener. It graphs average years of schooling of women in reproductive age versus total fertility rate in 1950 and again in 2010 in each country. For example women in Botswana in 1950 had an average of 1.4 years schooling and TFR was 6.5 whereas in 2010 they had 10 years schooling and TFR was 2.9. Niger however, had 0.07 years education on average in 1950 with a TFR of 7.3; in 2010 schooling had only risen to 1.29 years and TFR was 7.5. This is certainly proof - if any was needed - that education is a consistent predictor of low fertility.